Assessing the Drivers of Sustainable Development in Vietnam: A Bayesian Perspective on Institutional Quality, Green Investment, and Globalization

ABSTRACT Sustainable Development (SDI) is one of the key global concerns, particularly in the context of climate change and environmental degradation. This study aims to explore the impact of Institutional Quality (IQ), Green Investment (GI), and Globalization (GLO) on SDI in Vietnam from 2002 to 2021. Employing a Bayesian inference approach, we provide probabilistic insights into the positive or negative effects of these three factors on SDI. The findings indicate that IQ and GLO exert a positive impact on sustainable development, with respective probabilities of 53.27% and 76.58%. In contrast, GI negatively influences SDI with a probability of 53.24%, primarily due to institutional barriers and high costs. Based on these findings, we propose several policy implications related to improving IQ, fostering GI, and optimizing the benefits of GLO to achieve sustainable development goals.