Small near-Earth Objects in the Taurid Resonant Swarm

The Taurid Resonant Swarm (TRS) within the Taurid Complex hosts dynamically-concentrated debris in a 7:2 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter. Fireball observations have confirmed that the TRS is rich in sub-meter-sized particles, but whether this enhancement extends to larger, asteroid-sized objects remains unclear. Here we reanalyze the data obtained by a Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) campaign during the 2022 TRS encounter, and find that the TRS may host up to ∼ 1 0 2 Tunguska-sized objects and up to ∼ 1 0 3 Chelyabinsk-sized objects, the latter of which agrees the estimate derived from bolide records. This translates to an impact frequency of less than once every 4 million years. However, we caution that these numbers are based on the unverified assumption that the orbital distribution of the TRS asteroids follows that of fireball-sized meteoroids. Future wide-field facilities, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, could take advantage of TRS’s close approaches in the 2020–30s and validate the constraints of the asteroid-sized objects in the TRS. • A reanalysis of the 2022 ZTF TRS campaign sets new upper limits on the population of small asteroid-sized objects in the Taurid Resonant Swarm (TRS). • The TRS may contain no more than ∼ 1 0 2 Tunguska-sized ( ∼ 50 m) and ∼ 1 0 3 Chelyabinsk-sized ( ∼ 20 m) objects. • The estimated impact frequency of Chelyabinsk-scale TRS objects is less than once per four million years. • A new streak-adapted Figure of Merit is introduced to evaluate survey capabilities for TRS detection. • Upcoming observatories like the Vera C. Rubin Observatory are expected to dramatically improve detection sensitivity for TRS objects.