Integrated financial models for energy policy: the impact of liquidity and macroeconomic context on sectoral performance

The justification for this study lies in the need to understand how internal factors, such as liquidity, and external factors, such as the macroeconomic environment, influence the financial performance of capital-intensive industries, especially under high uncertainty. This research analyzed the effect of liquidity and macroeconomic conditions on the profitability of energy sector firms in Peru and Ecuador. A quantitative approach was employed, using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Fixed Effects (Within) panel models to examine the relationship between firm profitability and liquidity metrics. Results indicate that Peru exhibited more consistent and robust profitability, whereas Ecuador showed higher liquidity levels but considerable volatility. Furthermore, the correlation between liquidity and profitability was found to be statistically and significantly moderated by GDP and the annual real interest rate. The study contributes novel evidence on how the macroeconomic environment affects the financial outcomes of strategic sectors in developing countries. The results proved robust, as the estimated models were consistent with each other, providing relevant insights for designing sector-specific policies in energy and other capital-intensive industries to achieve stronger financial management.