Environmental economic impacts and policy pathways of gas flaring in Nigeria from 2002 to 2024

Gas flaring in Nigeria continues to pose significant environmental and economic challenges, despite its participation in the World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR) since 2002. This study analyses gas flaring volumes from 2002 to 2024, quantifies the associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and estimates economic losses resulting from underutilised natural gas resources. Using data from the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), emissions were calculated in carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) based on methodologies from the American Petroleum Institute (API) Compendium and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Global Warming Potential (GWP) metrics. Results show cumulative flaring emissions of 714.62 million tonnes CO2e and direct revenue losses of US$56.75 billion. When factoring in forgone liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, the broader economic opportunity cost rises to US$120.15 billion. A comparative analysis with countries such as Norway, the United States, and Angola highlights Nigeria’s lag in flare reduction, primarily due to regulatory weaknesses, infrastructural deficits, and policy fragmentation. The study recommends stricter regulations, increased investment in gas capture technologies, and independent monitoring of emissions to mitigate the impact of these pollutants. While incremental progress has been made, Nigeria remains significantly off track in achieving its zero-flaring targets, necessitating a comprehensive, multi-sectoral response that integrates legal, technological, and infrastructural reforms.