A simple nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps

This study introduces a nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps (CDSs) and other single-name credit-risky securities. This method is notable for its simplicity, estimation speed, and flexibility. That is, it relies exclusively on closed-form solutions, which provide instantaneous results, and allows the user to reproduce any term structure of CDS spreads. I empirically assess its pricing performance by comparing it with an otherwise equivalent semiparametric (piecewise constant default probability) model that requires a series of root-search algorithms and represents the current market convention for marking-to-market CDS contracts. This analysis demonstrates that the new method also implies a reduction in mean percentage absolute pricing errors.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Published
2025-10-11
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105198
Primary Topic
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

A simple nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps

Santiago Forte
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
article

A simple nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps

Santiago Forte
article en

Abstract

This study introduces a nonparametric approach to pricing credit default swaps (CDSs) and other single-name credit-risky securities. This method is notable for its simplicity, estimation speed, and flexibility. That is, it relies exclusively on closed-form solutions, which provide instantaneous results, and allows the user to reproduce any term structure of CDS spreads. I empirically assess its pricing performance by comparing it with an otherwise equivalent semiparametric (piecewise constant default probability) model that requires a series of root-search algorithms and represents the current market convention for marking-to-market CDS contracts. This analysis demonstrates that the new method also implies a reduction in mean percentage absolute pricing errors.

Journal of Economic Dynamics and ControlVol. 180
Universitat Ramon Llull (ES)
Agencia Estatal de Investigación
Openalex Percentile: Top 63%
Credit Risk and Financial Regulations
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