Nowcasting del bienestar en Costa Rica: metodología para estimar y pronosticar pobreza y desigualdad con mayor periodicidad

In Costa Rica, poverty and inequality indicators are traditionally reported on an annual basis, limiting their utility for timely analysis and responsive policymaking. This study develops and applies a novel methodology to generate monthly estimates of household poverty rates and Gini coefficients from June 2020 to November 2023. Results indicate statistically insignificant differences between the proposed estimates and official data for most periods analyzed. The research makes three substantive contributions. First, it reveals considerable monthly variability in poverty and inequality, underscoring the limitations of annual reporting in capturing short-term fluctuations. Second, the proposed methodology significantly reduces information lag, which improves the ability to make decisions. Third, findings demonstrate the pivotal role of labor market dynamism in driving changes in poverty.