Tropical forest carbon offsets deliver partial gains amid persistent over-crediting
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Plus) projects generate carbon credits to offset emissions, but recent studies have questioned their effectiveness. We evaluated 52 voluntary REDD+ projects across 12 tropical countries using synthetic control methods. Only a minority of project units showed statistically significant reductions in deforestation, and just 19% met their reported emissions targets. Nonetheless, many underperforming projects still delivered partial climate benefits, with an estimated 13.2% of tradable credits supported by counterfactual analysis. Effectiveness varied by region, with stronger performance in Brazil and Africa. Although systematic over-crediting remains a concern, our results suggest greater climate benefits than previous assessments. Improving baseline methodologies and strengthening verification frameworks will be essential for enhancing the credibility and impact of forest carbon offsets.
Authors
- Wei Tu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0255-4037)
- Liang Tan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6916-2134)
- Jonathan M. Chase (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5580-4303)
- Siting Xiong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1054-121X)
- Shoubin Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9071-0051)
- Chao Yang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7724-0385)
- Zhaopeng Li
- Yuzhi Tang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2225-9905)
- Kai Guo (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8345-0848)
- Bowen Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0004-8729-9224)
- Bo Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1998-2377)
- Haishan Wu
- Zhipeng Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8537-2409)
- Qingquan Li (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2438-6046)
- Zihao Xu
- Jindong Tian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0334-1762)
- Zhijun Wang
- Yu Hu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2487-1244)
Institutions
- Chinese University of Hong Kong (HK)
- Shenzhen University (CN)
- German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (DE)
- University of Jazeera (AE)
- Peng Cheng Laboratory (CN)
- Nano Carbon (Poland) (PL)
- Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg (DE)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Science
- Published
- 2025-10-09
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adw4094
- Citations
- 5
- Primary Topic
- Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 5.53