Identifying Net-Zero Emission Pathways Through Cross-Border Power Trading in the BIMP Region

Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is an important milestone for the ASEAN region, particularly the Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines (BIMP) region. This ambition requires strategic investments in cross-border power interconnection and renewable energy integration. To meet this, this paper examines the decarbonization potential of four scenarios: Fossil with CCS, Hydro-dominated, Solar-dominated, and Wind-dominated power grids. Each scenario will be compared by including and excluding the existing power development plan. This study used LEAP to model the power expansion plan from 2025 to 2050. Key parameters such as power generation mix, capacity addition, cumulative investment costs, and emission levels are analyzed. Results show that Hydro-dominated scenarios are the most cost-effective, requiring the least cumulative investment while achieving net-zero emissions. On the other hand, Solar-dominated scenarios need the highest investments due to extensive capacity expansion. This study also found that CCS technology is less effective than renewable options to achieve net zero emission. The findings highlight the trade-offs among renewable energy pathways, emphasizing the role of hydro as a cornerstone technology while advocating for a diversified mix to enhance energy security and system resilience.