From hype to bubble: a historical analysis of technology trends and the case for artificial intelligence

Technological advancements often undergo a hype cycle that initial enthusiasm and heavy investment lead to inflated expectations, followed by eventual market corrections. This article examines historical cases of technology hype and decay, including the dot-com bubble, Google Glass, and 3D televisions, drawing parallels to the current surge in artificial intelligence (AI). With generative AI experiencing unprecedented investment and integration across industries, concerns arise regarding its long-term viability and realistic impact. Through the AI Butterfly Theory, this study highlights the stages of AI evolution, emphasizing the need for balanced expectations and strategic investment to avoid repeating past technology booms and busts.