Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emission Drivers in Thailand's Power Sector

This study investigates the driving factors of carbon emissions in Thailand's power sector from 2002 to 2022 using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method. The objective is to provide a systematic and quantitative assessment of how socioeconomic and technological developments have influenced emission dynamics. The results indicate that total emissions rose from approximately 62 Mt in 2002 to a peak of 90 Mt in 2013, before stabilizing and slightly declining in recent years, reflecting improvements in efficiency and structural transformation. Economic growth was the largest contributor, adding a cumulative 43.83 Mt, followed by population growth (9.52 Mt). In contrast, structural transformation-primarily the gradual substitution of fuel oil with natural gas-reduced emissions by about 21.81 Mt, while enhanced efficiency in coal consumption contributed an additional 20.86 Mt reduction. Electricity intensity exerted a modest positive effect (4.39 Mt), and the influence of the carbon emission factor was minimal (0.61 Mt). The findings suggest that Thailand's power sector has achieved relative decoupling between economic growth and emissions, though absolute decoupling has yet to occur. The analysis underscores the critical importance of accelerating renewable energy deployment and strengthening energy efficiency initiatives to meet Thailand's carbon neutrality target by 2050 and its net-zero emissions goal by 2065. This study fills a gap in the existing literature by providing the first multi-factor decomposition analysis of Thailand's power sector emissions, offering valuable empirical insights and policy implications for sustainable energy transitions in developing economies.