Cloud-Based Solutions for Monitoring Coastal Ecosystems and the Prioritization of Restoration Efforts Across Belize

In recent years, the availability of automated change detection algorithms in Google Earth Engine has permitted the cloud-based processing of large quantities of satellite imagery. Models such as the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC), CCDC-Spectral Mixture Analysis (CCDC-SMA), and Landsat-based Detection of Trends in Disturbance and Recovery (LandTrendr) allow users to exploit decades of Earth Observations (EOs), leveraging the Landsat archive and data from other sensors to detect disturbances in forest ecosystems. Despite the wide adoption of these methods, robust documentation, and a growing community of users, little research has systematically detailed their tuning process in mangrove environments. This work aims to identify the best practices for applying these models to monitor changes within mangrove forest cover, which has been declining gradually in Belize the last several decades. Partnering directly with the Belizean Forest Department, our team developed a replicable, efficient methodology to annually update the country’s mangrove extent, employing EO-based change detection. We ran a series of model variations in both CCDC-SMA and LandTrendr to identify the parameterizations best suited to identifying change in Belizean mangroves. Applying the best performing model run to the starting 2017 mangrove extent, we estimated a total loss of 540 hectares in mangrove coverage by 2024. Overall accuracy across thirty variations in model runs of LandTrendr and CCDC-SMA ranged from 0.67 to 0.75. While CCDC-SMA generally detected more disturbances and had higher precision for true changes, LandTrendr runs tended to have higher recall. Our results suggest LandTrendr offered more flexibility in balancing precision and recall for true changes compared to CCDC-SMA, due to its greater variety of adjustable parameters.