Ecosystems mediate climate impacts on northern hemisphere seabirds

Ecosystem structure and biophysical processes mediate biological responses to climate changes, but few studies have examined impacts of this dynamic among upper trophic levels. We investigated ecosystem differences in how diverse seabird populations across the northern hemisphere have responded to changes in regional mixed layer temperature and water column stratification. Using 138 time series of breeding productivity over the past half-century, we show that seabird reproductive productivity has declined in the Arctic and North Atlantic but not in the Pacific during a period of ubiquitous mixed layer warming and regionally-variable stratification trends. Models of breeding productivity and ocean drivers show that seabird responses to climate change vary by ecosystem. Additionally, ecosystems in which seabirds exhibit detectibly declining productivity tend to have lower overall diet diversity across seabird species. These findings emphasize the importance of ecosystem processes and structure in determining the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change. Diet diversity across northern hemisphere ecosystems affects seabird responses to climate change, with breeding productivity declining in the Arctic and North Atlantic but not in the Pacific from 1993 to 2019, based on 138 time series of breeding success and linear mixed effects models.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2025-10-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02717-z
Primary Topic
Marine and fisheries research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Ecosystems mediate climate impacts on northern hemisphere seabirds

Shannon Whelan, David Mazurkiewicz, Annette L. Fayet, Trond Kristiansen et al.
Communications Earth & Environment
Marine and fisheries research
article

Ecosystems mediate climate impacts on northern hemisphere seabirds

Shannon Whelan, David Mazurkiewicz, Annette L. Fayet, Trond Kristiansen, Heather L. Major, Brian A. Hoover, Pete Warzybok, Rachael A. Orben, April Hedd, Yutaka Watanuki, Marisol García‐Reyes, Jannelle Trowbridge, Nina Dehnhard, Peter Becker, Jonas Hentati‐Sundberg, Tone Kristin Reiertsen, Sarah Wanless, Will Miles, Erpur Snær Hansen, Lindsay C. Young, Julie A. Thayer, Kyle H. Elliott, Michael Parker, Robert M. Suryan, Thierry Boulinier, Francis Daunt, Kjell Einar Erikstad, Daniel Oró, Sarah Thompson, Tycho Anker‐Nilssen, William J. Sydeman, Enriqueta Velarde, Antony W. Diamond, Per‐Arvid Berglund, Sandra Bouwhuis, T. R. Birkhead, Robert W. Furness, Elizabeth Flint, Svein‐Håkon Lorentsen, Jonathan H. Plissner, Gammon Koval, Jenny Rock, E. Yu. Golubova, Alexander S. Kitaysky, Scott A. Hatch, Hallvard Strøm, Jean‐François Rail, Jaime Jahncke, Heather M. Renner, Helen Killeen, Molly Heal, Donald E. Lyons, Mike Harris, Robert T. Barrett, Erendira Ceballos, Mark A. Newell
article en

Abstract

Ecosystem structure and biophysical processes mediate biological responses to climate changes, but few studies have examined impacts of this dynamic among upper trophic levels. We investigated ecosystem differences in how diverse seabird populations across the northern hemisphere have responded to changes in regional mixed layer temperature and water column stratification. Using 138 time series of breeding productivity over the past half-century, we show that seabird reproductive productivity has declined in the Arctic and North Atlantic but not in the Pacific during a period of ubiquitous mixed layer warming and regionally-variable stratification trends. Models of breeding productivity and ocean drivers show that seabird responses to climate change vary by ecosystem. Additionally, ecosystems in which seabirds exhibit detectibly declining productivity tend to have lower overall diet diversity across seabird species. These findings emphasize the importance of ecosystem processes and structure in determining the vulnerability of marine predators to climate change. Diet diversity across northern hemisphere ecosystems affects seabird responses to climate change, with breeding productivity declining in the Arctic and North Atlantic but not in the Pacific from 1993 to 2019, based on 138 time series of breeding success and linear mixed effects models.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 6(1)
University of New Brunswick (CA), National Audubon Society (US), Point Blue Conservation Science (US), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US), Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (US), Russian Academy of Sciences (RU), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), United States Fish and Wildlife Service (US), University of Alaska Fairbanks (US), Universidad Veracruzana (MX), University of St Andrews (GB), Université de Montpellier (FR), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NO), Hokkaido University (JP), American Sentinel University (US), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SE), Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive (FR), Farallon Institute (US), UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB), Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes (ES), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service Alaska Fisheries Science Center (US), Institute of Biological Problems of the North (RU), National Geographic Society (US), Icelandic Tourism Research Centre (IS), Institute of Avian Research (DE), Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NO), McGill University (CA), UiT The Arctic University of Norway (NO), University of Glasgow (GB), University of California, Davis (US), Norwegian Polar Institute (NO), University of Sheffield (GB)
National Science Foundation
Openalex Percentile: Top 73%
Marine and fisheries research
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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