A Study on the Impact of Non-Return of Deposit-Related Tenancy Insecurity in Seoul on the Number of Leasehold Registration Orders

This study empirically analyzes how macroeconomic variables, institutional changes, and household characteristics affect tenant anxiety using path analysis, by integrating data from the Seoul Housing Survey (2020-2022) and monthly administrative statistics on applications for tenant’s provisional registration orders. The analysis reveals that an increase in corporate bond yields and the implementation of the Three Lease Laws significantly exacerbate tenant anxiety, whereas higher levels of self-owned funds and increases in the consumer price index are associated with reduced anxiety. Notably, tenant anxiety shows a significant positive effect on the number of applications for tenant’s provisional registration orders, confirming a mediating effect in which psychological anxiety leads to actual legal responses. These findings offer several policy implications. First, the introduction of the three rental laws has actually increased uncertainty about non-return of deposits, worsening rental instability, suggesting the need for supplementation of the three rental laws. Second, during periods of rising interest rates, landlords’ burden of returning Chonsei deposits increases, intensifying tenant anxiety. This necessitates the design of policy buffers such as special-purpose loans for deposit returns or reductions in guarantee insurance premiums. Third, households with insufficient self-owned funds are more likely to engage in legal action, such as applying for provisional registration, particularly among vulnerable groups with limited housing alternatives. Therefore, preemptive policies are required to address crises occurring around lease termination.