Seeing Uncertainty: An Eye-tracking Study on how Civil Servants read and use Uncertainty Information

Civil servants often have to make decisions supported by uncertain information, yet it remains unclear how they prioritize different types of uncertainty. We distinguish shallow, quantified uncertainty from deep, ambiguous uncertainty. Ambiguity aversion suggests that shallow uncertainty information will distract attention away from deep uncertainty information, potentially leading to overconfident decisions. This eye-tracking study investigates how civil servants read and use deep and shallow uncertainty information regarding a procurement decision. Contrary to expectations, we find that shallow uncertainty does not distract from deep uncertainty but boosts concentration towards it. The presence of shallow uncertainty impacts decision-making but not decision confidence.