Resource, economic, and carbon benefits of end-of-life trucks’ urban mining in China

Abstract China’s booming truck industry has led to a rapid rise in end-of-life trucks, yet only one-third are formally recycled. Here we estimate the resource, economic, and decarbonization potential of end-of-life trucks in China through 2050 using a dynamic population balance model. Our analysis shows the annual amount of end-of-life trucks will increase nine-fold to 53 million metric tons by 2050. The economic benefit from these materials is projected to reach 44 billion United States dollars, adjusted for inflation. Furthermore, urban mining of aluminum, iron, and copper can reduce carbon emissions by up to 58 million metric tons in 2050 compared to primary production. These findings provide quantitative support for urban mining policies to advance decarbonization, particularly in economies with fossil fuel-dominated power grids.

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Publication Details

Journal
Communications Earth & Environment
Published
2025-10-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02832-x
Citations
5
Primary Topic
Recycling and Waste Management Techniques
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
4.99

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Resource, economic, and carbon benefits of end-of-life trucks’ urban mining in China

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Resource, economic, and carbon benefits of end-of-life trucks’ urban mining in China

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article en
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Abstract

Abstract China’s booming truck industry has led to a rapid rise in end-of-life trucks, yet only one-third are formally recycled. Here we estimate the resource, economic, and decarbonization potential of end-of-life trucks in China through 2050 using a dynamic population balance model. Our analysis shows the annual amount of end-of-life trucks will increase nine-fold to 53 million metric tons by 2050. The economic benefit from these materials is projected to reach 44 billion United States dollars, adjusted for inflation. Furthermore, urban mining of aluminum, iron, and copper can reduce carbon emissions by up to 58 million metric tons in 2050 compared to primary production. These findings provide quantitative support for urban mining policies to advance decarbonization, particularly in economies with fossil fuel-dominated power grids.

Communications Earth & EnvironmentVol. 6(1)
Zibo Vocational Institute (CN), National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP), China Electric Equipment Group (China) (CN), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Engineering (CN), Guangdong University of Petrochemical Technology (CN), Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (CN), China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China) (CN), Tsinghua University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Government of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing University, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Openalex Percentile: Top 5%
Recycling and Waste Management Techniques
4.99
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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