Mountain glaciers recouple to atmospheric warming over the twenty-first century
Abstract Recent studies have argued that air temperatures over many mountain glaciers are decoupled from their surroundings, leading to a local cooling which could slow down melting. Here we use a compilation of on-glacier meteorological observations to assess the extent to which this relationship changes under warming. Statistical modelling of the potential temperature decoupling of the world’s mountain glaciers indicates that currently glacier boundary layers warm ~0.83 °C on average for every degree of ambient temperature rise. Future projections under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate scenarios SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 indicate that decoupling, and thus relative cooling over glaciers, is maximized during the 2020s and 2030s, before widespread glacier retreat acts to recouple above-glacier air temperatures with its surroundings. This nonlinear feedback will lead to an increased sensitivity to warming from midcentury, with glaciers losing their capacity to affect the local climate and cool themselves.
Authors
- Pascal Buri
- Evan Miles (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5446-8571)
- Ben Brock (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5377-0776)
- Francesca Pellicciotti (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5554-8087)
- Franco Salerno (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3419-6780)
- Nicolas Guyennon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0306-0610)
- Michael McCarthy (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4138-0578)
- Luca Carturan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2134-2686)
- Thomas E. Shaw (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7640-6152)
Institutions
- University of Padua (IT)
- University of Alaska Fairbanks (US)
- University of Fribourg (CH)
- Institute of Science and Technology Austria (AT)
- University of Zurich (CH)
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH)
- Northumbria University (GB)
- Water Research Institute (IT)
- National Research Council (RO)
- National Research Council (IT)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2025-10-10
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02449-0
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Cryospheric studies and observations
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.90
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Institute of Science and Technology Austria
- European Commission
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung
- H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions