Tourism and air transport growth in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 prioritizes infrastructure and tourism development, supported by strategies like the National Transport and Logistics Strategy, National Tourism Strategy, and Saudi Aviation Strategy. While these initiatives aim to drive economic growth and enhance connectivity, they also risk significantly increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the aviation sector if not carefully managed, potentially undermining the country’s international commitments. This study explores how Saudi Arabia can balance its tourism expansion goals with aviation decarbonization by comparing two network models: the traditional hub-and-spoke system and a point-to-point network that enables more direct international routes. We apply a route-specific methodology to quantify GHG emissions across different network configurations and aircraft types, using a Saudi Arabia–Australia case study as a demonstration. The analysis shows that direct flights can reduce congestion, fuel consumption, and GHG emissions by 6–80%, depending on route characteristics and aircraft fleet composition. The originality of this research lies in its integrated approach to evaluating aviation emissions within the context of national tourism and transport strategies. Despite an ambitious policy landscape, a comprehensive roadmap for aviation decarbonization remains absent. This study contributes to bridging that gap by providing actionable insights for policymakers and planners, quantifying environmental trade-offs, and emphasizing the need for integrated aviation and tourism strategies aligned with climate objectives.