Prenatal Phthalate Exposures and Adiposity Outcomes Trajectories: A Multivariate Bayesian Factor Regression Approach

Experimental animal evidence and a growing body of observational studies suggest that prenatal exposure to phthalates may be a risk factor for childhood obesity. Using data from the Mount Sinai Children’s Environmental Health Study (MSCEHS), which measured urinary phthalate metabolites (including MEP, MnBP, MiBP, MCPP, MBzP, MEHP, MEHHP, MEOHP, and MECPP) during the third trimester of pregnancy (between 25 and 40 weeks) of 382 mothers, we examined adiposity outcomes—body mass index (BMI), fat mass percentage, waist-to-hip ratio, and waist circumference—of 180 children between ages 4 and 9. Our aim was to assess the effects of prenatal exposure to phthalates on these adiposity outcomes, with potential time-varying and sex-specific effects. We applied a novel Bayesian multivariate factor regression (BMFR) that (1) represents phthalate mixtures as latent factors—a DEHP and a non-DEHP factor, (2) borrows information across highly correlated adiposity outcomes to improve estimation precision, (3) models potentially non-linear time-varying effects of the latent factors on adiposity outcomes, and (4) fully quantifies uncertainty using state-of-the-art prior specifications. The results show that in boys, at younger ages (4–6), all phthalate components are associated with lower adiposity outcomes; however, after age 7, they are associated with higher outcomes. In girls, there is no evidence of associations between phthalate factors and adiposity outcomes.