Estimating the Effects of Restitution Penalties on Juvenile Recidivism

This study investigates the potential causal relationship between the assignment of financial restitution penalties to juvenile offenders and subsequent recidivism, defined as being sentenced for a new offense within the next two years. Although the use of financial penalties on juveniles is prevalent, there is limited research on its potential link to reoffending. Using a dataset of all juvenile offenders in the state of Pennsylvania from 2015 to 2017 ( n = 15,382), we implement a propensity-score matching model to estimate the effects of restitution assignment on future recidivism and test for endogeneity between the two using a control function model. Controlling for offender demographics, criminal history, and offense type and severity, we estimate that restitution assignment increases recidivism rates by 26-percentage points ( p < 0.001) and do not find statistical evidence of endogeneity. Higher rates of recidivism are found for those assigned restitution across all offense grades, categories, and dispositions.