On Polarization and Partisan Attachments: Greater Consistency but not Greater Strength

Abstract Are Americans more strongly attached to their political parties than ever before? Despite partisanship’s stronger associations across politics, inter-election panel surveys show that the durability of partisan attachments has slightly weakened. After bringing attention to this fact, I propose that this discrepancy exists because comparisons across time are mostly a product of greater consistency in mass partisan behavior, not the strengthening of mass partisan attachments. Model estimates confirm that thermometer- and vote-based indicators of partisanship have mostly become more consistent markers of partisanship instead of representing stronger modern-day partisan orientations. These estimates find that American partisan attachments have strengthened since the 1970s but remain similar to the 1950s and 1960s. American partisanship is clearly a more relevant and consistent conduit for mass political opinion and behavior in recent years, but American partisan attachments are not much stronger; they are just as movable now as they were in the past.