Does increased tree cover in eastern Rwanda result in higher woody biomass availability for energy consumption?

• Woody biomass stock trends were assessed based on land cover and stock changes • Estimating biomass without per capita changes misrepresents its supply potential • Agroforestry stock decreased by 22.9% due to household overdependence • Per household biomass dropped from 3.7 to 2.9 m³, indicating unsustainable wood use • Policy should promote clean energy to ease pressure on woody biomass resources. Tree planting has been promoted for climate change mitigation and as a sustainable solution to meet the growing population's energy demands. This study assesses the woody biomass potential, trends, changes per household, and capita from 2015 to 2021 by evaluating changes in area and stock across forests, shrublands & wooded savanna, and agroforestry. This analysis is based on an inventory of 1,429 plots in 2021 and its comparison with the 2015 National Forest Inventory. The total woody biomass stock is 5.6 million m³ in 2021, almost evenly distributed among agroforestry (34.4%), forest (32.9%), and shrubland & wooded areas (32.7%). The overall stock trends resulting from changes in volume and cover reveal a small positive trend. Woody biomass stock increased by 17.3% in forests and 5.6% in shrubland & wooded savanna, while it decreased by 22.9% in agroforestry. The available woody biomass stock has declined from 8 to 6.3 m³ per household and from 1.8 to 1.5 m³ per capita. Similarly, the stock suitable for energy use decreased from 3.7 to 2.9 m³ per household and from 0.8 m³ to 0.7 m³ per capita. Although agroforestry contributes to the production of woody biomass, our findings indicate that the increased energy demand surpasses the growth in tree cover and woody biomass. Agroforestry alone is insufficient to meet this demand; therefore, it is important to promote tree species with strong biomass growth and to invest in alternative energy sources, such as LPG, biogas or solar energy, to reduce reliance on biomass for cooking.