Assessment of the Impacts of Climatic Factors and Infrastructure Characteristics on Gas Pipeline Failures

The increasing reliance on natural gas as a transitional energy source has underscored the importance of ensuring the safety and reliability of gas pipelines. This study examines failure patterns in gas transmission pipelines in the US, considering both infrastructure characteristics and climatic factors. Initial analyses of the spatial and temporal characteristics of pipeline incidents is performed based on the kernel density estimation (KDE) approach, and Moran’s I. Detailed analysis of the influence of various factors, including concurrent and antecedent climatic factors, on pipeline failures is achieved through negative binomial (NB) and random parameters negative binomial (RPNB) models, developed for both underground and aboveground pipelines. The RPNB model, which appears superior to the NB model for both underground and aboveground pipelines—as evidenced by the Akaike information criterion and Bayes information criterion—captures unobserved heterogeneity, enabling a more nuanced representation of complex, real-world dynamics. Marginal effect analysis based on the RPNB models provides a quantitative assessment of how specific factors influence pipeline incident probabilities. Precipitation and soil moisture emerged as the most influential climatic factors for underground pipeline failure, and precipitation was also found to be the primary factor affecting aboveground pipeline failure. Additionally, it was found that temperature-related factors potentially contributed to the failure of gas pipelines. The results provide useful insights regarding pipeline failure and controlling factors and will form the basis for additional detailed investigations and advancements in pipeline design, maintenance, and decision-making.