Mapping Multi-Temporal Heat Risks Within the Local Climate Zone Framework: A Case Study of Jinan’s Main Urban Area, China

Global climate change and rapid urbanization have intensified urban heat risks, particularly in cities such as Jinan that face pronounced heat-related environmental challenges. This study takes Jinan’s main urban area as a case example, integrating the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) framework with the Hazard–Exposure–Vulnerability–Adaptability (HEVA) model to develop multi-temporal heat risk maps. The results indicate the following: (1) High-risk zones are primarily concentrated in the densely built urban core, whereas low-risk areas are mostly located in peripheral green spaces, water bodies, and forested regions. (2) Heat risk shows clear diurnal patterns, peaking between noon and early afternoon and expanding outward from the city center. (3) LCZ6 (open low-rise), despite its theoretical advantage for ventilation, exhibits unexpectedly high levels of heat hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. (4) SHAP-based analysis identifies land surface temperature (LST), floor area ratio (FAR), impervious surface area ratio (ISA), housing value, building coverage ratio (BCR), and the distribution of cooling facilities as the most influential drivers of heat risk. These findings offer a scientific foundation for developing multi-scale, climate-resilient urban planning strategies in Jinan and hold significant practical value for improving urban resilience to extreme heat events.