A Hybrid Framework Integrating End-to-End Deep Learning with Bayesian Inference for Maritime Navigation Risk Prediction

Currently, maritime navigation safety risks—particularly those related to ship navigation—are primarily assessed through traditional rule-based methods and expert experience. However, such approaches often suffer from limited accuracy and lack real-time responsiveness. As maritime environments and operational conditions become increasingly complex, traditional techniques struggle to cope with the diversity and uncertainty of navigation scenarios. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a more intelligent and precise risk prediction method. This study proposes a ship risk prediction framework that integrates a deep learning model based on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with Bayesian risk evaluation. The model first leverages deep neural networks to process time-series trajectory data, enabling accurate prediction of a vessel’s future positions and navigational status. Then, Bayesian inference is applied to quantitatively assess potential risks of collision and grounding by incorporating vessel motion data, environmental conditions, surrounding obstacles, and water depth information. The proposed framework combines the advantages of deep learning and Bayesian reasoning to improve the accuracy and timeliness of risk prediction. By providing real-time warnings and decision-making support, this model offers a novel solution for maritime safety management. Accurate risk forecasts enable ship crews to take precautionary measures in advance, effectively reducing the occurrence of maritime accidents.