Integrating POI-Driven Functional Attractiveness into Cellular Automata for Urban Spatial Modeling: Case Study of Yan’an, China

Urban growth models often prioritize environmental and accessibility factors while underestimating behavioral and functional dynamics. This study develops a POI-enhanced Cellular Automata (CA) framework to simulate urban expansion by incorporating three semantic indicators derived from Point-of-Interest (POI) data—density (PD), diversity (PDI), and functional centrality (FC). Taking Yan’an, China, as a case, the model integrates these indicators with terrain and infrastructure variables via logistic regression to estimate land-use transition probabilities. To ensure robustness, spatial block cross-validation was adopted to reduce spatial autocorrelation bias. Results show that the POI-based model outperforms the baseline in both Kappa and Figure of Merit metrics. High-density and mixed-function POI zones correspond with compact infill growth, while high-centrality zones predict decentralized expansion beyond administrative cores. These findings highlight how functional semantics sharpen spatial prediction and uncover latent behavioral demand. Policy implications include using POI-informed maps for adaptive zoning, ecological buffer protection, and growth hotspot management. The study contributes a transferable workflow for embedding behavioral logic into spatial simulation. However, limitations remain: the model relies on static POI data, omits vertical (3D) development, and lacks direct comparison with alternative models like Random Forest or SVM. Future research could explore dynamic POI trajectories, integrate 3D building forms, or adopt agent-based modeling for richer institutional representation. Overall, the approach enhances both the accuracy and interpretability of urban growth modeling, providing a flexible tool for planning in functionally evolving and ecologically constrained cities.