Bridging conservation and policy: evaluating national targets to reduce mangrove loss under the Kunming–Montreal biodiversity framework

Abstract The Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) aims to halt biodiversity loss by 2030, with Targets 1 and 3 focusing on reducing forest loss and expanding protected areas. Mangroves, as biodiversity hotspots offering crucial ecosystem services, have seen some conservation gains, yet key drivers of high-value mangrove loss remain unaddressed in intergovernmental policy frameworks. It is the first global assessment linking GBF Targets 1 & 3 to mangrove loss drivers and ecosystem assessment. We apply an interdisciplinary approach—combining global-scale geospatial analysis of mangrove loss trajectories between 2000 and 2016 and ecosystem value distribution, and thematic policy analysis. We classify all 120 countries where mangroves are present by their short- and long-term mangrove loss management strategies and evaluate the inclusion of relevant actions under Targets 1 and 3 of National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). Between 2000 and 2016, 78% of mangrove loss occurred in areas rich in biodiversity, biomass, and coastal protection, mostly outside protected zones. Of 120 mangrove-holding countries, 30 (25%) experienced significant loss. Among them, 11 have the potential to implement short-term mitigation by expanding or managing protected areas, though only 5 included these strategies in national targets. Four countries referenced broader measures like indigenous rights and the prioritisation of ecosystem service hotspots. Only Cameroon, Colombia, Gabon, Panama, and Tanzania are positioned to address major loss drivers within the GBF timeline. This paper is the first global assessment of GBF-aligned national targets to mitigate mangrove loss, contributing to SDGs 14 and 15. We show that mangrove loss cannot be halted by 2030 under the current level of national targets. Policy amendments at national scales can include short-term (area-based protection) and long-term strategies (restoration, rehabilitation and ecosystem-based approaches) to halt mangrove loss.