ANALYSIS OF FUTURE CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THE SHU-TALAS BASIN (KAZAKHSTAN)

An analysis of expected changes in air temperature and precipitation in the Shu-Talas basin by the end of the 21st century was conducted using the CMIP6 climate model ensemble and data from the IPCC Interactive Atlas. In the Kazakh part of the Shu-Talas basin, the average annual temperature is expected to increase by 1.4...1.7 °C and precipitation by 3...7% between 2021 and 2040. In the medium term (2041...2060), warming is expected to be 2.4...3.0 °C and precipitation will increase by 6...12% under the SSP3-7.0 scenario. In the long term (2081...2100), Under the SSP3-7.0 scenario, temperatures will increase by 4.5...5.0°C, and under SSP5-8.5, by 6.0...6.5°C, with precipitation potentially increasing by 15...23%. These changes will contribute to increased interannual variability and transformation of the region's hydrological regime. The scientific significance of this study will expand our understanding of the regional manifestations of global warming in Central Asia, while its practical significance will allow the results to be used for adaptation to climate change in the water management and agricultural sectors. The study also provides recommendations for the sustainable management of the Shu-Talas basin's natural resources.