RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ACADEMIC MOTIVATION AND STUDENT RETENTION IN THE FIRST YEAR OF UNIVERSITY: EVIDENCE FROM A LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL

Objective. To evaluate the relationship between academic motivation and student retention in the first year using a logistic regression model, controlling for sociodemographic and academic factors. Method. Observational study with administrative and survey data of first-year students (N=2,148) in a Latin American public university; motivation variables measured with an abbreviated version of the Academic Motivation Scale (AMS) and sense of belonging; outcome: retention in the second semester. Results. High intrinsic motivation (OR=1.38; 95% CI: 1.18–1.61) and the identified regulation (OR=1.21; 95%CI: 1.05–1.39) increased the probability of retention, while demotivation reduced it (OR=0.72; 95% CI: 0.61–0.84). The sense of belonging showed a positive effect (OR=1.29; 95% CI: 1.12–1.48). The model had AUC=0.74 and Nagelkerke's R²=0.21. Conclusion. Motivation (especially intrinsic/autonomous) and sense of belonging are significantly associated with retention in the first year; institutional strategies should support the satisfaction of basic psychological needs (autonomy, competence and relationship) and strengthen academic and social integration. These findings are consistent with Self-Determination Theory and contemporary frameworks on retention. (Ryan & Deci, 2020; Kritikou & Giovazolias, 2022; Frontiers in Education, 2023; MDPI, 2024).