How marine plastic debris shapes tourist behavior: Willingness to return and economic losses in Galapagos

Marine plastic pollution poses a growing threat to tourism-dependent economies, particularly in regions reliant on pristine beach environments such as the Galapagos Islands, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. We estimate the potential economic losses from plastic debris on beaches by surveying 445 tourists in the Galapagos National Park. We modeled changes in tourists’ willingness to visit and return under varying pollution scenarios. Estimated annual losses range from US$ 29.2–303.8 million in a conservative scenario to US$ 73–458.7 million in a severe case, with visitor numbers potentially declining by up to 70%. Using XGBoost and logistic regression, we identified key factors influencing willingness to return, including plastic consumption per capita and tourist education level. Our findings highlight how environmental degradation can reduce tourism demand and provide economic justification for policy actions to protect natural assets and sustain tourism revenues.