ESTIMATING THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE RISK MODEL “SCORE” AMONG THE KAZAKH PEOPLE

Kazakhstan is the country with a high risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and one of the main reasons for this is the lack of early detection of the risk of CVDs. In this regard, the purpose of our study is to show the reliable CVD risk scale “SCORE” for determining the risk of CVDs, which are widely used in the world. 660 patients participated in the cohort study from 2012 to 2014 and 2019-2020. The diagnostic value and accuracy of SCORE was assessed using ROC/AUC analysis and Pearson correlation test. From these researchers, the main indicators of the scales for determining the risk of CVDs and changes in other risk factors based on 10-year dynamics were analyzed. AUC of SCORE risk score increased. Namely, AUC of SCORE model elevated from 0.88 in 2012 to 0.92 in 2020. The Pearson correlation rate was in the range 0.996 for following model with a p-value≤0.05. The proportion of the high-risk group was increased from 2.5% in 2012 to 4.4% in 2020. Predictive value of SCORE was investigated, and their accuracy was increased.