Dynamics of the water‒energy‒cropland nexus in China from 2007 to 2017: Implications for the dual circulation strategy

• A new assessment framework was developed to analyze water-carbon-cropland nexus. • The framework considers virtual water, embodied energy and virtual cropland simultaneously. • Provincial water-energy-cropland nexus was revealed via the EE-MRIO model. • It can identify critical regions for water saving, energy and cropland conservation. • Less developed regions need to enhance the nexus in light of the Dual Circulation of China. Natural resources are fundamental for socioeconomic development and sustainable development. However, our understanding of the dynamic connections among water resources, energy and cropland still remains unclear. This study developed a framework covering the multisectoral and multiproduct water‒carbon‒cropland nexuses and identified key areas for water, energy and cropland conservation by considering both the resource utilization efficiency and connections between provinces. The new framework revealed that the utilization efficiencies of the three resources improved from 2007 to 2017 in China, with the average values of the direct, indirect, and total coefficients of virtual water consumption, embodied carbon emissions and virtual cropland use decreasing by 63.3 %, 40.6 % and 59.2 %, respectively. Moreover, the interprovincial connections of the water‒carbon‒cropland nexus have weakened, with a downward trend in the pull coefficients. Gansu, Ningxia, and Xinjiang were typical regions with high consumption of water, energy and cropland, with the average value of the total coefficients of the three resources nearly twice the national average. Xinjiang, Ningxia and Inner Mongolia were regions with weak water–energy–cropland connections, and their average pulling coefficient was approximately 36 % of the national average. Under the "dual circulation" development pattern of China, it is necessary to improve resource utilization efficiency in the future by promoting economic cooperation between regions with strong connections and weak connections and promoting the efficient utilization of resources for regions (e.g., Xinjiang and Gansu) with the help of developed regions (e.g., Beijing and Shanghai). This framework can further capture the food‒energy‒water nexus (FEW nexus) at urban, provincial and even global scales and can be used as an important tool to identify the process of multiple sustainable development goals (SDGs 2, 6, 7 and 12).