SIMULATION OF POTENTIAL FLOWS OF CONTAINERS THROUGH THE TERRITORY OF UKRAINE

Purpose. Container transport and logistics lines in global supply chains are the result of the integration of sea and land transport. This statement is of particular relevance for Ukraine. Our country has direct access to the Black Sea, which is part of the system of communication with the World Ocean. The unique geopolitical position of Ukraine, located at the intersection of key land routes of the Eurasian continent and with access to the World Ocean, creates favorable conditions for the development of large container hubs. This, in turn, opens up significant prospects for attracting a significant share of global container flows between the countries of Asia and Europe. The purpose of this study is to develop gravity models for analyzing and forecasting potential container flows through the territory of Ukraine. Methods. The research used the gravity modeling method, which is considered one of the simplest forecasting methods. Although this method is inferior in accuracy to alternative approaches, it remains effective under conditions of limited research resources and tolerance of certain errors. In such cases, gravity models are often used as the main analysis tool. Given the complexity and limited availability of information typical for assessing global supply chains, the use of the gravity approach to forecast potential container flows through the territory of Ukraine seems appropriate. Results. Using the developed gravity model, potential container flows between the main economic regions of the world were determined. The model is an optimization problem of linear programming, where the optimality criterion is the minimization of the variance of deviations between the calculated and statistical data on the volumes of container departures and arrivals. The modeling showed that potentially the territory of Ukraine can pass: 1) in the direction of East Asia to the Eurozone countries - up to 112.9 million TEU per year; 2) in the opposite direction, from the Eurozone countries to East Asia - up to 99.9 million TEU per year. Scientific novelty. For the first time, an optimization gravity model was applied to predict potential container flows through the territory of Ukraine under conditions of limited availability of information and resources. Practical significance. The developed mathematical models allow, in practice, based on open data, to form potential container flows for any region of the planet.