COVID-19 Impact on Public Health in Bangladesh: A Comprehensive Analysis of Morbidity, Mortality and Future Scenarios

To analyze the temporal trends and patterns of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Bangladesh, to identify potential seasonal variations in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, to visualize the relationship between new cases, new deaths, and time, to prioritize factors or periods based on case and death frequencies and to apply statistical process control charts to monitor the stability and identify significant variations in daily case and death rates. COVID-19, caused by a novel coronavirus, has become a global public health emergency since its emergence in late 2019. Bangladesh, a densely populated and low-resource country, faced many challenges in responding to the pandemic. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on public health in Bangladesh by analyzing the trends and patterns of morbidity, mortality, and future scenarios which mean the implications of the historical analysis for the potential direction the pandemic might take, while acknowledging the variables and the plan for a dedicated future projection study. The analysis used data from the WHO COVID-19 dashboard, covering 1st January, 2020 to 1st January, 2023. Minitab 17.1.0 was used for analysis and visualization. The data was cleaned and transformed to create new variables like season and case fatality rate. A surface plot was used to show the relationship between new cases, new deaths, and date reported. Trending charts with upper and lower control limits were also created.Results showed an initial surge in cases and deaths peaking in mid-2021, followed by declining death rates. Seasonal variations were observed, with summer and winter having higher cases (summer: 50.3% of total cases; winter: 22.1%) and deaths (summer: 59.1%; spring: 16.8%) compared to spring and autumn. Pareto analysis of cases showed that July 2021 accounted alone for about 16.5% of the total incidents. The study highlights seasonal trends and the critical role of vaccination and healthcare capacity. Public health authorities should prioritize pre-peak-season interventions, enhance real-time monitoring using statistical tools and address systemic vulnerabilities to mitigate future outbreaks.