ASSESSMENT OF UNEVENNESS IN THE TRANSPORTATION OF GRAIN CARGO BY RAILWAY TRANSPORT IN UKRAINE

Purpose. The purpose of this article is to improve the methods for forecasting annual and monthly volumes of grain transportation by rail. Methodology. The research in this work was carried out using time series analysis methods and correlation analysis methods. Results. Grain production has a wide multiplicative effect on other sectors of the economy, especially the transport sector. In this regard, the study of the characteristics of grain freight traffic is a pressing task for Ukraine's transport industry. To plan for the development of infrastructure and shunting facilities at railway stations and access tracks serving elevators, to develop the fleet of wagons and containers for grain transportation, to develop grain transportation technologies, and to set the cost of services for grain transportation, it is necessary to use data from long-term, medium-term, and short-term plans for grain production and export. Rail transport is the main carrier of export grain in Ukraine. Therefore, the volume of rail transportation of grain cargo has a close correlation with the volume of grain exports. However, the inability to handle growing volumes of grain transportation leads to the development of competing road transport and, as a result, a decrease in the share of rail transport in transportation. In this regard, a model for forecasting the volume of grain transportation by rail is proposed, based on the forecast of grain export volumes and the carrying capacity of the railway transport system. The export flow of grain cargo is heterogeneous in its structure. In addition, the export of different types of grain has differences in the distribution of volumes by month. It has been established that there is a correlation between the residual variance of the monthly unevenness coefficient and the shares of different types of grain crops. Taking this into account, determining the unevenness coefficients for the transportation of various grain crops and having a forecast of their export volume will increase the accuracy of forecasting grain transportation volumes during individual months. Originality. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that it improves the method of forecasting the volume of grain transportation by rail based on forecast grain export volumes. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed methodology takes into account the limitations of the carrying capacity of the railway transport system and the competition for freight traffic between rail and road transport. The paper also, for the first time, establishes a correlation between the residual variance of the monthly unevenness coefficient and the ratio of different types of grain cargo in the total grain export. Practical value. The practical significance of the results lies in the fact that they make it possible to improve the quality of forecasting grain transportation volumes when planning the work of railway rolling stock and when pricing transport services.