Mapping megatrends shaping European forests

Abstract European forests are changing rapidly due to environmental pressures and human actions, making it essential to understand the drivers and their potential impacts for informing management and policy. We quantify and map six megatrends affecting European forests: (1) climate change, (2) fire, (3) pests and pathogens, (4) forest cover and felling intensity change, (5) harvesting, and (6) pollution and nutrient enrichment. Our mapping indicates that megatrends act heterogeneously across Europe. Hotspots of negative trends are found in the Nordic and mountainous regions. These correspond to the megatrend combination clusters: (1) the warming North with an intensified felling trend and (2) the bark beetle-affected temperate Europe. The maps show that business as usual is unlikely for most European forests, and the diverse archetypical megatrend combinations highlight the need for region-specific management. Our mapping helps prioritize interventions and tailor adaptation strategies to the combination of pressures.