Yukarı Kızılırmak Havzasında Hidrolojik Kuraklik Eğilimleri: SSP2 ve SSP5 Senaryolarının Karşılaştırılması

This study aims to evaluate hydrological drought trends in the Upper Kızılırmak Basin under SSP2 and SSP5 climate change scenarios. In the study, streamflow data projected until 2100 were used to calculate the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), and Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were applied to the time series. The results indicate that hydrological drought may be more prolonged and severe under the SSP5 scenario. Particularly, after 2090, SDI values at Station 6 are projected to drop below -2, reaching the extreme drought category. According to Mann-Kendall trend analysis, only two stations exhibit statistically significant negative trends under SSP2, whereas all stations show significant decreasing trends under SSP5. An analysis of the spatial distribution of hydrological drought reveals that SDI values are generally higher in the upper basin, whereas drought conditions become more pronounced in the lower sub-basins. These findings suggest that climate change could significantly impact the hydrological regime of the basin, necessitating new strategies for water resource management. Future studies should compare different climate models and develop adaptive water management policies.