Quantum-Cognitive Modeling of the "Order Effect" of Informational Messages on Decision-Making in Wartime Conditions

Abstract. The article is devoted to the problem of the "order effect" of informational messages, which cannot be explained by classical probabilistic models. The relevance of applying the quantum-cognitive approach to the study of choice paradoxes is substantiated, particularly in investigating the specific influence of the sequence of informational messages on individual decision-making under wartime conditions in Ukraine. It is demonstrated that the quantum-cognitive concept is not a form of physical reductionism, but a productive mathematical model that enables the representation of decision-making as a potential, dynamic, context-sensitive, and non-deterministic process. Its application is shown to be especially effective in analyzing decisions made under stress, threat, traumatic experiences, or uncertainty. The study involved 300 participants aged 18 to 65. The empirical design included different sequences of informational messages: a positive contextual message and a call to action. Experimental data were processed in two stages: traditional statistical analysis and quantum modeling. The obtained results indicate that a positive informational background presented prior to a call to action significantly increases readiness to respond. Specifically, prior transmission of a positive message about military success substantially raised individuals’ willingness to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These findings are consistent with expert conclusions in other social domains and even demonstrate a more pronounced contextual influence than that observed in studies of financial behavior. This may be attributed to the extremity of wartime conditions, which intensify cognitive sensitivity to changes in informational context. A key empirical finding is that the average level of readiness to act in the group that first received a positive message about victory (M = 0.85) was five times higher than in the group with the reversed message order (M = 0.17), highlighting the critical importance of message sequencing in stimulating behavioral intentions. The practical implications of the study are significant for various social domains in wartime, including information campaigns, strategic communications, and psychological support for civilians, military personnel, volunteers, and displaced persons. Future research perspectives include the investigation of individual factors influencing sensitivity to the order effect of informational messages, as well as the expansion of the empirical base through longitudinal, cross-cultural, and neuropsychological studies in crisis contexts.