Populism and the Prosecution of Former Democratic Leaders

ABSTRACT The rise of populist leaders to power in recent decades has prompted a growing literature on the impacts of populist rule, especially in democracies. Research addressing the effects on key democratic institutions finds the result to be predominantly negative: populist rule undermines several key mechanisms of accountability. Checks on the executive, media freedom, and rule of law all reportedly grow weaker under populist leaders. But are populists held to account once they exit office? Do they face a higher risk of prosecution than other leaders? Using data on former presidents and prime ministers in electoral democracies across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa from 1970 to 2022, this study explores the conditions that generate post‐tenure prosecution of populist and non‐populist former leaders. We show that populists are more likely to be prosecuted ex‐post, especially if they served as presidents. And their risk grows the more the rule of law declines on their watch. Related Articles Hunter, L. Y., J. Rutland, and Z. King. 2020. “Leaving the Barracks: Military Coups in Developing Democracies.” Politics & Policy 48, no. 6: 1062–1103. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12383 . Levitt, B., and T. Kostadinova. 2014. “Personalist Parties in the Third Wave of Democratization: A Comparative Analysis of Peru and Bulgaria.” Politics & Policy 42, no. 4: 513–547. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12084 . Özer, S., A. G. G. Gülal, and Y. K. Polat. 2023. “The Rule of Law in the Grip of Populist Authoritarianism: Hungary and Poland.” Politics & Policy 51, no. 5: 936–959. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12554 .