A methodological framework for assessing anthropogenic vulnerability caused by the coastal regulation zone rules in India

Rapid urbanisation and policy-driven developmental activities have significantly altered coastal ecosystems, increasing their vulnerability to environmental and anthropogenic stressors. While vulnerability assessments typically consider physical, social, economic, and environmental factors, limited attention has been given to the role of policy changes in shaping vulnerability patterns. This study introduces the concept of anthropogenic vulnerability (AnV) as a distinct dimension of vulnerability, focusing on the vulnerability induced by policy amendments, enforcement failures, and violations. Unlike existing vulnerability frameworks, which primarily address climate and socio-ecological risks, AnV explicitly integrates governance-related factors such as policy effectiveness, enforcement, land-use regulations, and the broader impact of policy changes on social, economic, and environmental conditions. To operationalise AnV, we develop a methodological framework using the evolution of India's Coastal Regulation Zones (CRZ) rules and incorporating key indicators that measure changes in CRZ, alterations in Ecologically Sensitive Areas (ESA), infrastructure expansion, industrial and developmental activities in CRZ, and their impacts on human and ecological systems. Applying this framework to the Palghar district’s coastline, we observed a substantial rise in AnV, with its value increasing from 0.06 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2020, indicating a substantial increase in AnV over the decade. This increase was driven by the expansion of industrial and developmental activities in CRZ areas, the reduction in the extent of No Development Zones (NDZ) and mangrove buffers, loss of ESAs, and heightened coastal pollution and climate-related impacts. These findings highlight how policy shifts can exacerbate coastal risks. Although this study focuses on India’s CRZ policies, the proposed framework is adaptable to other coastal regions and regulatory contexts. Mitigating anthropogenic drivers of coastal vulnerability is essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability of coastal ecosystems. The findings highlight the urgent need for policymakers to consider the unintended consequences of regulatory amendments and strengthen enforcement mechanisms.