Quantifying the water contributions and carbon consequences of permafrost degradation on the Tibetan Plateau

Permafrost degradation under climate warming plays a crucial role in hydrological and ecological processes, including the regional water cycle and terrestrial carbon balance. The Tibetan Plateau (TP), which contains the largest expanse of high-altitude permafrost globally, remains understudied in terms of how permafrost degradation affects surface water resources and regional carbon dynamics. Using permafrost simulation models and quantitative analysis, we assess the spatiotemporal impacts of permafrost degradation on surface water resources and carbon dynamics. In the inner endorheic regions of the TP, ground ice meltwater contributed 12.6% of the total lake volume increase from 2000 to 2020, accelerating lake expansion and affecting nearby infrastructure and ecosystems. Cryospheric meltwater accounted for 4.6% of total runoff in the source areas of the Yangtze, Yellow, Lancang, Yarlung Zangbo, and Nujiang Rivers in 2002-2018. This cryospheric meltwater contribution is projected to peak in the 2030s-2040s, followed by a decline, with potentially profound implications for downstream water availability. From 2000 to 2020, carbon sequestration of alpine grassland in permafrost regions is 1.05-1.29 Tg C a^-¹ in 2000-2020. This estimate is underestimated by approximately 35.5% to 48.1% without considering the impact of permafrost degradation. Top-down thawing of permafrost from 2002 to 2050 is projected to release 129.39 ± 21.02 Tg C a^-¹ of thawed soil organic carbon (SOC), with 20.82 ± 3.06 Tg C a^-¹ decomposed annually. Additionally, permafrost collapse and thermokarst lake are estimated to reduce ecosystem carbon sinks by 0.41 (0.29-0.52) Tg C a^-¹ in 2020.