Climate, Crops, and Communities: Modeling the Environmental Stressors Driving Food Supply Chain Insecurity

As climate variability intensifies, its impacts are increasingly visible through disrupted agricultural systems and rising food insecurity, especially in climate-sensitive regions. This study explores the complex relationships between environmental stressors, such as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and soil degradation, with food insecurity outcomes in selected districts of Uttarakhand, India. Using the Fuzzy DEMATEL method, this study analyzes 19 stressors affecting the food supply chain and identifies the nine most influential factors. An Environmental Stressor Index (ESI) is constructed, integrating climatic, hydrological, and land-use dimensions. The ESI is applied to three districts—Rudraprayag, Udham Singh Nagar, and Almora—to assess their vulnerability. The results suggest that Rudraprayag faces high exposure to climate extremes (heatwaves, floods, and droughts) but benefits from a relatively stronger infrastructure. Udham Singh Nagar exhibits the highest overall vulnerability, driven by water stress, air pollution, and salinity, whereas Almora remains relatively less exposed, apart from moderate drought and connectivity stress. Simulations based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate increasing stress across all regions, with Udham Singh Nagar consistently identified as the most vulnerable. Rudraprayag experiences increased stress under the RCP 8.5 scenario, while Almora is the least vulnerable, though still at risk from drought and pest outbreaks. By incorporating crop yield models into the ESI framework, this study advances a systems-level tool for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change. This research holds global relevance, as food supply chains in climate-sensitive regions such as Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America face similar compound stressors. Its novelty lies in integrating a Fuzzy DEMATEL-based Environmental Stressor Index with crop yield modeling. The findings highlight the urgent need for climate-informed food system planning and policies that integrate environmental and social vulnerabilities.