FOOD SECURITY REGARDING GRAINS AND OILSEEDS: UKRAINIAN REALITIES IN WARTIME

It is evident that grains and oilseeds represent a pivotal component within the agricultural sector of Ukraine, playing a crucial role in ensuring the nation's food security on a global scale. The purpose of the present paper is to evaluate the impact of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war on the cultivation of wheat, maize, barley, soya beans, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds, in comparison with the period of the pandemic of COVID-19. The research methodology employs econometric tests, optimal modelling, and relevant charts based on official statistics for the years 2019-2024. The research findings reveal that crop yields have remained stable. The judicious management of natural risks in farming has engendered more stable yields of maize and selected oilseeds, thereby demonstrating adaptability and mitigating the adverse effects of hardships. The research results support the hypothesis of substantial harvest losses (ranging from 22% to 37%) and a decline in export revenues (exceeding 65%) due to a reduction in harvested areas in the eastern regions of Ukraine that are situated within the military conflict zone. There has been a noticeable drop in production volumes for wheat and barley. Ukrainian exporters have suffered from disrupted supply chains and have had to change their logistics, relying on major importers from Spain, Poland, Romania, Turkey and China instead. Research recommendations emphasise the importance of strategic crop choices, including eco-friendly and more productive rapeseed and soya beans, which have partly displaced sunflower seeds. It is also advisable to adhere to optimal proportions when producing grains, taking into account the beneficial prevalence of maize, which can help to tackle the volatility of harvests and export incomes, which varied by up to 69%. The research concludes that the war has placed an enormous burden on Ukrainian agriculture, which has been striving to remain resilient and contribute to global food security. The present study highlights practical strategies that could help to overcome future international crises that threaten the sustainable development of the food security system.