Dynamic Modelling of the Natural Gas Market in Colombia in the Framework of a Sustainable Energy Transition

In response to the climate crisis, Colombia has committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 through an energy transition strategy that promotes Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sources (NCRES) and, increasingly, natural gas. Although natural gas is regarded as a transitional fuel with lower carbon intensity than other fossil fuels, existing reserves could be depleted by 2030 if no new discoveries are made. To assess this risk, a System Dynamics model was developed to project supply and demand under alternative transition pathways. The model integrates: (1) GDP, urban population growth, and adoption of clean energy, (2) the behavior of six major consumption sectors, and (3) the role of gas-fired thermal generation relative to NCRES output and hydroelectric availability, influenced by the El Niño river-flow variability. The novelty and contribution of this study lie in the integration of supply and demand within a unified System Dynamics framework, allowing for a holistic understanding of the Colombian natural gas market. The model explicitly incorporates feedback mechanisms such as urbanization, vehicle replacement, and hydropower variability, which are often overlooked in traditional analyses. Through the evaluation of twelve policy scenarios that combine hydrogen, wind, solar, and new gas reserves, the study provides a comprehensive view of potential energy transition pathways. A comparative analysis with official UPME projections highlights both consistencies and divergences in long-term forecasts. Furthermore, the quantification of demand coverage from 2026 to 2033 reveals that while current reserves can satisfy demand until 2026, the expansion of hydrogen, wind, and solar sources could extend full coverage until 2033; however, ensuring long-term sustainability ultimately depends on the discovery and development of new reserves, such as the Sirius-2 well.