Climate Change and the Coffee Industry in Brazil

This article discusses the impacts that climate change will have on the Brazilian coffee industry throughout the 21st century; particularly how coffee plants will respond to changes in temperature and precipitation and how the incidence of coffee leaf rust could change. Historical and current conditions of Brazil’s coffee industry and the importance of its position in the global coffee industry are introduced. The current climate of Brazil’s major coffee producing regions are summarized. Context is provided on the origin and spread of coffee leaf rust as well as its mode of infection. Syntheses of climate models in Brazil are used to assess the effects climate change will have on coffee production, including climate’s effects on coffee plants as well as the incidence of coffee leaf rust. Rising average annual temperatures and more variable precipitation patterns could hamper coffee plant growth and increase coffee leaf rust incidence. Rising levels of carbon dioxide may increase coffee plant growth, leading to greater yields. Solutions to mitigate damage to the Brazilian coffee industry, proposed by previous researchers, are reviewed and discussed. These include expansion into high altitude regions, shade systems, sun systems, fungal predators of coffee leaf rust, scientific advancement of crops and financial protections for farmers.