Market potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in Beijing: a spatial agent-based model approach

Abstract Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) are vital for advancing the hydrogen economy and decarbonizing the transportation sector. However, research on HFCV market dynamics in passenger vehicles is limited, especially incorporating both market competition from other vehicle types and the comprehensive supply–demand market dynamics. To bridge this gap, our study proposed a spatial agent-based model to simulate the HFCV market evolution, with the aim of finding effective strategies and policy implications for breaking the diffusion dilemma of the HFCV market. We calibrated the model using survey data (N = 1065) collected from Beijing and evaluated its performance across five “What-If” scenarios. Results indicate that HFCVs and hydrogen stations are difficult to penetrate under the current conditions, despite HFCV applicants and market share growing by 37.5% and 15.63%, respectively. Consumer perceptions on cost, social and environment have greater impacts on HFCV proliferation than facility availability. The HFCV purchase subsidy has much greater impact than the technological learning rate, greatly accelerating its market emergence timing. Finally, HFCVs’ diffusion significantly influences the market of battery electric vehicles.