FUTURE WAVE HEIGHT DYNAMICS IN THE KAZAKH PART OF THE CASPIAN SEA

The development of oil and gas fields in the Caspian region, year-round navigation at sea, and the need to preserve biodiversity have led to a growing interest in comprehensive studies of the Caspian Sea, including wind disturbance. This study aims to investigate the process of wind waves at sea and calculate its spatial and temporal changes in the future based on numerical modeling using the SWAN spectral-wave model. Calculations of wave height projection into the future up to 2050 using climate model data from the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios showed that up to 2050 the maximum wave heights can vary from 1.1 m to 4.0 m at SSP1-2.6 with the highest values in 2023, 2029, 2042; from 1.3 m to 4.1 m at SSP5-8.5 with the highest values in 2029, 2033, 2050. In the Kazakhstan part of the sea, significant and strong waves are possible in the future (for the period 2022...2050). Because by 2050 the wave height may reach 6 m in the Middle Caspian Sea it is necessary to build protective dams in the areas of oil fields and settlements, as well as strengthening and reconstruction of previously built.