PARİS MOU LİMAN DEVLET KONTROLÜ DENETİM ÇERÇEVESİ KAPSAMINDA GENEL KARGO GEMİLERİNİN YAŞ FAKTÖRÜNE DAYALI REKABET ANALİZİ VE ARIMA YÖNTEMİ KULLANILARAK GELECEKTEKİ REKABET TAHMİNİ

There is intense competition in all sectors today, and this situation is more evident in the maritime sector. In maritime transportation, which forms the basis of global trade, ship inspection processes are a critical factor that makes competition difficult. International ship inspection regimes determine competition in sector by evaluating ships in terms of their compliance with international laws to which they are subject. Regimes such as Paris Memorandum of Understanding are among the basic elements that evaluate ship deficiencies and shape competition dynamics. In this study, age-based competition analysis of general cargo ships was made and their competition for 2025 was estimated with the ARIMA model. Paris MoU inspection result data were divided into 24 quarters and the ships were divided into four age groups as 0-5, 5-10, 10-15 and 15-20 years. In the first stage, competition dynamics of age groups were evaluated with Ship Inspection Competition Index (SICI) and reliability of the SICI values was tested with Cronbach's Alpha method. In the second stage, competition estimates based on age groups were made for the end of 2025 with ARIMA model. The results show that general cargo vessels in 5-10 age group will have a more advantageous competitive power compared to other age groups by 2025. It is evaluated that the study can provide significant benefit in fleet management and strategic decision-making processes in the maritime industry and also provides a valuable academic framework to measure current competitive dynamics and predict future trends with the integration of SICI and ARIMA methods.