Belarus and the Russo-Ukrainian War: The Consolidation of Strategic Dependence in 2022–2025

<ns3:p>This paper analyses Belarus’s evolving international position in the context of the first three years of the full-scale Russo-Ukrainian war (2022–2025). Although Belarus did not participate in direct combat operations, it offered Russia logistical and political support. At the same time, the Belarusian regime sought to maintain an image of neutrality and present itself as a potential mediator. Drawing on structural realism and dependency theory, the paper examines how alignment with Russia has resulted in the consolidation of Belarus’s strategic dependence, transforming Belarus into a de facto client state. Special attention is given to changes in Belarus’s relations with both Russia and Western partners. The findings suggest that Belarus’s capacity for multi-vector diplomacy has been effectively eliminated, while its international marginalisation has intensified. The war served as a catalyst that not only entrenched Minsk’s subordination to Moscow but also reduced the likelihood of any return to strategic autonomy in the foreseeable future.</ns3:p>