The Multidimensional Impact of Inflation: A Panel Data Analysis of Socioeconomic Effects in North African Countries

This article analyzes the macro-social effects of inflation in Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt and Mauritania over 1990–2023 using a panel ‎VAR with system-GMM. We document that moderate inflation is associated with higher GDP growth and lower unemployment in the ‎short run, while it depresses real consumption per capita (our poverty proxy), implying higher poverty in the absence of compensating so‎cial policies. Inflation also crowds out investment, consistent with risk and cost channels. These results highlight the need to contain infla‎tion volatility and shield vulnerable households, while preserving a price environment supportive of activity‎.