ANALISIS PERAMALAN KLAIM TABUNGAN HARI TUA MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA PADA PT. ASABRI CABANG MAKASSAR

The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method was used in this study to forecast the number of Old Age Savings (THT) insurance claims at PT ASABRI (Persero) Makassar Branch. The data used consisted of 37 monthly observations of THT claims from May 2022 to May 2025. The model identification results indicate that the ARIMA (1,1,0) model is appropriate, with a p-value <0.05 and residuals similar to white noise. This forecast was made for June to December 2025. According to the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 17,7123%, this model has a fairly high level of accuracy. It is hoped that the results of this study will assist businesses in making financial decisions and strategic planning.